Florida Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

eight

Florida metro area house prices are forecasted to outperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is outperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Florida’s housing market has weakened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 5.5% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty four metro housing markets which comprise it, Florida’s housing market ranks eighth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is positive.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Florida Metro Housing Markets

Florida is comprised of twenty four metro housing markets that account for nearly 96% of the state’s population. The Sunshine State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA SITUATION OUTLOOK US METRO RANK (/402)
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL Underperforming Negative 314
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL Outperforming Positive 8
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL Outperforming Positive 64
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL Outperforming Negative 200
Gainesville, FL Outperforming Positive 29
Homosassa Springs, FL Outperforming Positive 14
Jacksonville, FL Outperforming Positive 95
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL Outperforming Neutral 149
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL Outperforming Positive 119
Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL Underperforming Negative 310
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL Outperforming Neutral 166
Ocala, FL Outperforming Positive 20
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Outperforming Neutral 131
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL Outperforming Positive 67
Panama City, FL Outperforming Positive 43
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL Outperforming Positive 19
Port St. Lucie, FL Outperforming Negative 195
Punta Gorda, FL Underperforming Neutral 288
Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL Outperforming Positive 56
Sebring, FL Outperforming Positive 53
Tallahassee, FL Outperforming Negative 175
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Outperforming Positive 35
The Villages, FL Outperforming Positive 46
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL Outperforming Positive 106

Industry Specialization

Florida’s state economy is specialized in Construction, Other svcs, and Pro Bus svcs. Mining, Manufacturing, and Information industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Florida residents and they have less purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Florida’s population is comparatively less diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Data through October 2020