Virginia Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

thirty one

Virginia metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is tracking the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Virginia’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 6% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the eleven metro housing markets which comprise it, Virginia’s housing market ranks thirty first amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is neutral.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Virginia Metro Housing Markets

Virginia is comprised of eleven metro housing markets that account for nearly 87% of the state’s population. The Old Dominion State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA SITUATION OUTLOOK US METRO RANK (/402)
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA Underperforming Negative 307
Charlottesville, VA Underperforming Negative 352
Harrisonburg, VA Underperforming Negative 330
Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA Underperforming Negative 324
Lynchburg, VA Tracking Negative 261
Richmond, VA Tracking Neutral 210
Roanoke, VA Outperforming Positive 115
Staunton-Waynesboro, VA Tracking Negative 264
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC Tracking Positive 143
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Underperforming Negative 283
Winchester, VA-WV Underperforming Negative 373

Industry Specialization

Virginia’s state economy is specialized in Pro Bus svcs, Information, and Construction. Mining, Manufacturing, and Trade Trans Util industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a lower incidence of poverty amongst Virginia residents and they have greater purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a larger proportion of the population is college educated. Virginia’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Data through February 2021