Texas Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

thirty nine

Texas metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is tracking the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Texas’ housing market has weakened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 3.1% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty six metro housing markets which comprise it, Texas’ housing market ranks thirty ninth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Texas Metro Housing Markets

Texas is comprised of twenty six metro housing markets that account for nearly 89% of the state’s population. The Lone Star State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA SITUATION OUTLOOK US METRO RANK (/402)
Abilene, TX Underperforming Negative 287
Amarillo, TX Underperforming Negative 357
Austin-Round Rock, TX Outperforming Positive 108
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Outperforming Negative 177
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Outperforming Positive 85
College Station-Bryan, TX Underperforming Negative 337
Corpus Christi, TX Tracking Negative 297
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX Underperforming Negative 331
El Paso, TX Underperforming Positive 165
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Underperforming Negative 291
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Underperforming Negative 333
Killeen-Temple, TX Outperforming Negative 213
Laredo, TX Tracking Negative 381
Longview, TX Underperforming Positive 208
Lubbock, TX Underperforming Negative 318
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Tracking Negative 278
Midland, TX Underperforming Negative 394
Odessa, TX Outperforming Negative 270
San Angelo, TX Outperforming Positive 31
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Tracking Negative 232
Sherman-Denison, TX Outperforming Negative 209
Texarkana, TX-AR Outperforming Neutral 172
Tyler, TX Outperforming Positive 129
Victoria, TX Underperforming Negative 366
Waco, TX Outperforming Neutral 147
Wichita Falls, TX Outperforming Positive 24

Industry Specialization

Texas’ state economy is specialized in Mining, Fncl activities, and Trade Trans Util. Edu Health svcs, Manufacturing, and Leisure Hosp industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Texas residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Texas’ population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Data through November 2020