Texas Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

thirty nine

Texas metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is underperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Texas’ housing market has weakened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 5.8% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty six metro housing markets which comprise it, Texas’ housing market ranks thirty ninth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Texas Metro Housing Markets

Texas is comprised of twenty six metro housing markets that account for nearly 89% of the state’s population. The Lone Star State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA SITUATION OUTLOOK US METRO RANK (/402)
Abilene, TX Tracking Negative 291
Amarillo, TX Underperforming Negative 331
Austin-Round Rock, TX Outperforming Positive 40
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Outperforming Negative 231
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Outperforming Negative 255
College Station-Bryan, TX Underperforming Negative 329
Corpus Christi, TX Tracking Neutral 184
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX Underperforming Neutral 288
El Paso, TX Underperforming Negative 263
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Underperforming Negative 275
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Underperforming Negative 312
Killeen-Temple, TX Outperforming Positive 53
Laredo, TX Underperforming Negative 394
Longview, TX Underperforming Negative 306
Lubbock, TX Underperforming Negative 308
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Underperforming Negative 345
Midland, TX Underperforming Negative 399
Odessa, TX Underperforming Negative 385
San Angelo, TX Outperforming Negative 251
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Tracking Positive 195
Sherman-Denison, TX Tracking Negative 244
Texarkana, TX-AR Outperforming Negative 239
Tyler, TX Outperforming Negative 179
Victoria, TX Underperforming Negative 342
Waco, TX Outperforming Negative 167
Wichita Falls, TX Outperforming Negative 196

Industry Specialization

Texas’ state economy is specialized in Mining, Fncl activities, and Trade Trans Util. Edu Health svcs, Manufacturing, and Leisure Hosp industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Texas residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Texas’ population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Data through February 2021