Texas Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

forty four

Texas metro area house prices are forecasted to track the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is underperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Texas’ housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 6.8% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the twenty six metro housing markets which comprise it, Texas’ housing market ranks forty fourth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Texas Metro Housing Markets

Texas is comprised of twenty six metro housing markets that account for nearly 89% of the state’s population. The Lone Star State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA SITUATION OUTLOOK US METRO RANK (/402)
Abilene, TX Underperforming Negative 329
Amarillo, TX Underperforming Negative 314
Austin-Round Rock, TX Outperforming Positive 17
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Underperforming Negative 323
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Underperforming Negative 308
College Station-Bryan, TX Underperforming Negative 372
Corpus Christi, TX Outperforming Positive 133
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX Underperforming Neutral 220
El Paso, TX Underperforming Positive 177
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Underperforming Neutral 212
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Underperforming Negative 346
Killeen-Temple, TX Outperforming Positive 92
Laredo, TX Underperforming Negative 395
Longview, TX Underperforming Negative 293
Lubbock, TX Underperforming Negative 287
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Underperforming Negative 321
Midland, TX Underperforming Negative 401
Odessa, TX Underperforming Negative 400
San Angelo, TX Underperforming Negative 313
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Underperforming Negative 245
Sherman-Denison, TX Underperforming Negative 262
Texarkana, TX-AR Underperforming Negative 312
Tyler, TX Tracking Negative 249
Victoria, TX Underperforming Negative 301
Waco, TX Outperforming Negative 158
Wichita Falls, TX Outperforming Neutral 162

Industry Specialization

Texas’ state economy is specialized in Mining, Fncl activities, and Trade Trans Util. Edu Health svcs, Manufacturing, and Leisure Hosp industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Texas residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Texas’ population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated July 30, 2021 with data through June 2021