March 2020

Texas Housing Market Vitality

forecast

Outperform

Texas metro area house prices are forecasted to outperform the national market. Current local conditions support an estimated 10.8% increase in the next twelve months. Texas’s housing market vitality, based on the twenty six metro housing markets which comprise it, is stronger than that of the overall U.S. and currently ranks the state as seventh in the nation. Recent changes in local conditions suggest the possibility of improvement in short-term performance.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on future house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current prices; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect; and values greater than 100 indicate a positive effect on house prices.  A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a forecasted growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a forecasted 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Texas Metro Housing Markets

Texas is comprised of twenty six metro housing markets that account for nearly 89% of the state’s population. The markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national or state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA FORECAST US METRO RANK (/402)
Abilene, TX Track 167
Amarillo, TX Outperform 123
Austin-Round Rock, TX Outperform 9
Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX Underperform 209
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Underperform 154
College Station-Bryan, TX Outperform 213
Corpus Christi, TX Track 141
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX Outperform 15
El Paso, TX Underperform 359
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Outperform 10
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Outperform 41
Killeen-Temple, TX Outperform 31
Laredo, TX Track 295
Longview, TX Underperform 178
Lubbock, TX Underperform 177
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Outperform 186
Midland, TX Outperform 5
Odessa, TX Underperform 113
San Angelo, TX Underperform 143
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Outperform 128
Sherman-Denison, TX Outperform 148
Texarkana, TX-AR Outperform 44
Tyler, TX Track 112
Victoria, TX Underperform 115
Waco, TX Outperform 37
Wichita Falls, TX Outperform 71

Industry Specialization

Texas’s state economy is specialized in Mining, Fncl activities, and Trade Trans Util. Edu Health svcs, Manufacturing, and Leisure Hosp industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Lone Star State residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Texas’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.