March 2020

South Carolina Housing Market Vitality

forecast

Underperform

South Carolina metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market. Current local conditions support an estimated 5% increase in the next twelve months. South Carolina’s housing market vitality, based on the ten metro housing markets which comprise it, is weaker than that of the overall U.S. and currently ranks the state as thirty fifth in the nation. Recent changes in local conditions suggest the possibility of improvement in short-term performance.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on future house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current prices; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect; and values greater than 100 indicate a positive effect on house prices.  A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a forecasted growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a forecasted 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

South Carolina Metro Housing Markets

South Carolina is comprised of ten metro housing markets that account for nearly 84% of the state’s population. The markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national or state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA FORECAST US METRO RANK (/402)
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC Outperform 102
Charleston-North Charleston, SC Underperform 214
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Outperform 65
Columbia, SC Outperform 245
Florence, SC Outperform 273
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC Underperform 341
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC Outperform 278
Spartanburg, SC Outperform 212
Sumter, SC Outperform 189
Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Beaufort, SC Underperform 172

Industry Specialization

South Carolina’s state economy is specialized in Construction, Leisure Hosp, and Manufacturing. Mining, Information, and Edu Health svcs industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Palmetto State residents and they have less purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. South Carolina’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.