New York Housing Market Vitality
New York metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is underperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, New York’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 3.9% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the fourteen metro housing markets which comprise it, New York’s housing market ranks thirty sixth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.
Housing Market Vitality
Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.
New York Metro Housing Markets
New York is comprised of fourteen metro housing markets that account for nearly 93% of the state’s population. The Empire State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.
|METRO AREA||SITUATION||OUTLOOK||US METRO RANK (/402)|
|Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY||Outperforming||Positive||105|
|Dutchess County-Putnam County, NY||Outperforming||Neutral||176|
|Glens Falls, NY||Outperforming||Positive||74|
|Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY||Outperforming||Negative||193|
|New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ||Underperforming||Negative||338|
|Watertown-Fort Drum, NY||Underperforming||Positive||118|
New York’s state economy is specialized in Information, Fncl activities, and Edu Health svcs. Mining, Construction, and Manufacturing industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.
Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.
Compared to the U.S., there is a lower incidence of poverty amongst New York residents and they have greater purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a larger proportion of the population is college educated. New York’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.
A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.
Data through November 2020