New Mexico Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

twenty two

New Mexico metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is tracking the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, New Mexico’s housing market has weakened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 1.3% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the four metro housing markets which comprise it, New Mexico’s housing market ranks twenty second amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is negative.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

New Mexico Metro Housing Markets

New Mexico is comprised of four metro housing markets that account for nearly 67% of the state’s population. The Land of Enchantment metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA SITUATION OUTLOOK US METRO RANK (/402)
Albuquerque, NM Underperforming Negative 282
Farmington, NM Tracking Negative 212
Las Cruces, NM Outperforming Positive 91
Santa Fe, NM Outperforming Negative 168

Industry Specialization

New Mexico’s state economy is specialized in Mining, Construction, and Leisure Hosp. Manufacturing, Information, and Fncl activities industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst New Mexico residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. New Mexico’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Data through September 2020