February 2020

North Carolina Housing Market Vitality

forecast

Outperform

North Carolina metro area house prices are forecasted to outperform the national market. Current local conditions support an estimated 8.6% increase in the next twelve months. North Carolina’s housing market vitality, based on the seventeen metro housing markets which comprise it, is stronger than that of the overall U.S. and currently ranks the state as sixteenth in the nation. Recent changes in local conditions suggest the possibility of improvement in short-term performance.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on future house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current prices; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect; and values greater than 100 indicate a positive effect on house prices.  A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a forecasted growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a forecasted 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

North Carolina Metro Housing Markets

North Carolina is comprised of seventeen metro housing markets that account for nearly 78% of the state’s population. The markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national or state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA FORECAST US METRO RANK (/402)
Asheville, NC Track 108
Burlington, NC Track 277
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Outperform 52
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Outperform 79
Fayetteville, NC Track 139
Goldsboro, NC Underperform 388
Greensboro-High Point, NC Track 147
Greenville, NC Underperform 333
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC Outperform 20
Jacksonville, NC Outperform 247
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC Underperform 386
New Bern, NC Underperform 319
Raleigh, NC Outperform 191
Rocky Mount, NC Track 259
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC Underperform 366
Wilmington, NC Outperform 245
Winston-Salem, NC Track 110

Industry Specialization

North Carolina’s state economy is specialized in Manufacturing, Construction, and Other svcs. Mining, Edu Health svcs, and Information industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Tar Heel State residents and they have greater purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a larger proportion of the population is college educated. North Carolina’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.