North Carolina Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

fifteen

North Carolina metro area house prices are forecasted to track the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is outperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, North Carolina’s housing market has weakened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 6.9% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the seventeen metro housing markets which comprise it, North Carolina’s housing market ranks fifteenth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is positive.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

North Carolina Metro Housing Markets

North Carolina is comprised of seventeen metro housing markets that account for nearly 78% of the state’s population. The Tar Heel State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA SITUATION OUTLOOK US METRO RANK (/402)
Asheville, NC Tracking Negative 233
Burlington, NC Underperforming Negative 318
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Outperforming Positive 83
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Underperforming Neutral 257
Fayetteville, NC Outperforming Neutral 91
Goldsboro, NC Underperforming Negative 357
Greensboro-High Point, NC Outperforming Negative 178
Greenville, NC Tracking Negative 246
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC Outperforming Positive 49
Jacksonville, NC Tracking Negative 311
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC Outperforming Neutral 112
New Bern, NC Outperforming Positive 13
Raleigh, NC Tracking Neutral 205
Rocky Mount, NC Underperforming Negative 314
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC Tracking Positive 143
Wilmington, NC Outperforming Negative 182
Winston-Salem, NC Outperforming Negative 171

Industry Specialization

North Carolina’s state economy is specialized in Manufacturing, Construction, and Other svcs. Mining, Edu Health svcs, and Information industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst North Carolina residents and they have greater purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a larger proportion of the population is college educated. North Carolina’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Data through February 2021