February 2020

Missouri Housing Market Vitality

forecast

Track

Missouri metro area house prices are forecasted to track the national market. Current local conditions support an estimated 6.1% increase in the next twelve months. Missouri’s housing market vitality, based on the nine metro housing markets which comprise it, is the same as that of the overall U.S. and currently ranks the state as thirty fourth in the nation. Recent changes in local conditions suggest the possibility of moderation in short-term performance.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on future house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current prices; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect; and values greater than 100 indicate a positive effect on house prices.  A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a forecasted growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a forecasted 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Missouri Metro Housing Markets

Missouri is comprised of nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 74% of the state’s population. The markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national or state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA FORECAST US METRO RANK (/402)
Columbia, MO Outperform 184
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO Outperform 237
Jefferson City, MO Underperform 274
Joplin, MO Underperform 201
Kansas City, MO-KS Underperform 185
St. Joseph, MO-KS Underperform 322
St. Louis, MO-IL Underperform 314
Springfield, MO Underperform 159
Cape Girardeau, MO-IL Underperform 370

Industry Specialization

Missouri’s state economy is specialized in Fncl activities, Pro Bus svcs, and Trade Trans Util. Mining, Leisure Hosp, and Information industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a lower incidence of poverty amongst Show Me State residents and they have greater purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a larger proportion of the population is college educated. Missouri’s population is comparatively less diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.