Kentucky Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

twenty nine

Kentucky metro area house prices are forecasted to track the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is tracking the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Kentucky’s housing market has strengthened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 6.9% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the nine metro housing markets which comprise it, Kentucky’s housing market ranks twenty ninth amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is neutral.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Market Pulse

Sales Tracker April 2021 12-month change
Closed Sales Count 4,738 +25%
Distressed Sales Count 15 +88%
Median Sales Price $205K +9%
Months of Inventory 1.3 -60%
Pending Sales Count 8,413 +25%
The aggregate volume in pending home sales contracts for the state of Kentucky reached a record high last month, with $2.2 billion in transactions under contract in April 2021. The figure represents a 47% increase over the $1.5 billion in pending sales volume for both April 2020 and 2019. Home sales numbers continue to be up year-over-year, but the meteoric rise in volume is largely due to the higher prices that the current housing market is commanding. As expected, closed sales are up once again. In April, 4,738 homes sold, a 25% increase from 3,793 in April of 2020. The pending sales count was also up 25%, reaching 8,413 for the month.

Kentucky Metro Housing Markets

Kentucky is comprised of nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 58% of the state’s population. The Bluegrass State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA SITUATION OUTLOOK US METRO RANK (/402)
Bowling Green, KY Underperforming Negative 360
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Outperforming Positive 133
Clarksville, TN-KY Outperforming Positive 60
Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY Underperforming Negative 250
Evansville, IN-KY Underperforming Neutral 211
Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH Underperforming Negative 321
Lexington-Fayette, KY Underperforming Negative 253
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Tracking Neutral 167
Owensboro, KY Tracking Neutral 175

Kentucky Metro Housing Markets

Kentucky is comprised of nine metro housing markets that account for nearly 58% of the state’s population. The Bluegrass State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA SITUATION OUTLOOK US METRO RANK (/402)
Bowling Green, KY Underperforming Negative 347
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Outperforming Neutral 134
Clarksville, TN-KY Outperforming Positive 68
Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY Underperforming Negative 236
Evansville, IN-KY Underperforming Negative 237
Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH Underperforming Negative 319
Lexington-Fayette, KY Underperforming Negative 246
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Tracking Negative 171
Owensboro, KY Underperforming Negative 238

Industry Specialization

Kentucky’s state economy is specialized in Manufacturing and Other svcs. Mining, Information, and Pro Bus svcs industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Kentucky residents and they have greater purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Kentucky’s population is comparatively less diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Updated July 30, 2021 with data through May 2021