March 2020

Florida Housing Market Vitality

forecast

Outperform

Florida metro area house prices are forecasted to outperform the national market. Current local conditions support an estimated 11.6% increase in the next twelve months. Florida’s housing market vitality, based on the twenty four metro housing markets which comprise it, is stronger than that of the overall U.S. and currently ranks the state as twenty fifth in the nation. Recent changes in local conditions suggest the possibility of moderation in short-term performance.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on future house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current prices; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect; and values greater than 100 indicate a positive effect on house prices.  A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a forecasted growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a forecasted 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Florida Metro Housing Markets

Florida is comprised of twenty four metro housing markets that account for nearly 96% of the state’s population. The markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national or state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA FORECAST US METRO RANK (/402)
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL Underperform 215
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL Underperform 140
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL Underperform 176
Gainesville, FL Outperform 60
Jacksonville, FL Track 87
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL Outperform 1
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL Outperform 4
Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL Underperform 219
Ocala, FL Underperform 188
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Underperform 138
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL Underperform 243
Panama City, FL Underperform 355
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL Underperform 262
Port St. Lucie, FL Underperform 132
Punta Gorda, FL Underperform 195
Sebring, FL Underperform 323
Tallahassee, FL Track 200
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Track 69
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL Underperform 227
Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL Underperform 169
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL Outperform 53
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL Underperform 129
Homosassa Springs, FL Outperform 27
The Villages, FL Underperform 265

Industry Specialization

Florida’s state economy is specialized in Construction, Other svcs, and Pro Bus svcs. Mining, Manufacturing, and Information industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Sunshine State residents and they have less purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Florida’s population is comparatively less diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.