Arizona Housing Market Vitality

Market Rank

two

Arizona metro area house prices are forecasted to outperform the national market over the next twelve months. Currently, the market is outperforming the overall U.S. market. Compared to 12-months ago, Arizona’s housing market has weakened. Current local economic conditions support an estimated 8.8% increase in house prices over the next twelve months. Based on the housing market vitality of the seven metro housing markets which comprise it, Arizona’s housing market ranks second amongst all states and D.C. The three-month outlook is positive.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current price appreciation; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect and values greater than 100 indicate a positive impact on house prices. A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Arizona Metro Housing Markets

Arizona is comprised of seven metro housing markets that account for nearly 95% of the state’s population. The Grand Canyon State metro housing markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national and state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA SITUATION OUTLOOK US METRO RANK (/402)
Flagstaff, AZ Outperforming Negative 192
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ Outperforming Positive 15
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Outperforming Positive 16
Prescott, AZ Outperforming Positive 62
Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ Outperforming Positive 44
Tucson, AZ Outperforming Positive 34
Yuma, AZ Outperforming Positive 24

Industry Specialization

Arizona’s state economy is specialized in Construction, Fncl activities, and Leisure Hosp. Mining, Manufacturing, and Information industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Arizona residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Arizona’s population is comparatively less diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.

Data through October 2020