February 2020

Arizona Housing Market Vitality

forecast

Outperform

Arizona metro area house prices are forecasted to outperform the national market. Current local conditions support an estimated 8.6% increase in the next twelve months. Arizona’s housing market vitality, based on the seven metro housing markets which comprise it, is stronger than that of the overall U.S. and currently ranks the state as thirteenth in the nation. Recent changes in local conditions suggest the possibility of improvement in short-term performance.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on future house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current prices; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect; and values greater than 100 indicate a positive effect on house prices.  A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a forecasted growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a forecasted 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Arizona Metro Housing Markets

Arizona is comprised of seven metro housing markets that account for nearly 95% of the state’s population. The markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national or state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA FORECAST US METRO RANK (/402)
Flagstaff, AZ Underperform 332
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Outperform 47
Prescott, AZ Track 271
Tucson, AZ Outperform 70
Yuma, AZ Underperform 240
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ Underperform 380
Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ Outperform 58

Industry Specialization

Arizona’s state economy is specialized in Construction, Fncl activities, and Leisure Hosp. Mining, Manufacturing, and Information industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a higher incidence of poverty amongst Grand Canyon State residents and they have less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Arizona’s population is comparatively less diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.