February 2020

Alaska Housing Market Vitality

forecast

Underperform

Alaska metro area house prices are forecasted to underperform the national market. Current local conditions support an estimated 2.5% increase in the next twelve months. Alaska’s housing market vitality, based on the two metro housing markets which comprise it, is weaker than that of the overall U.S. and currently ranks the state as forty eighth in the nation. Recent changes in local conditions suggest the possibility of moderation in short-term performance.

Housing Market Vitality

Housing Market Vitality summarizes the impact of economic conditions on future house prices. A value of 100 corresponds to conditions supporting current prices; values less than 100 correspond to a dampening effect; and values greater than 100 indicate a positive effect on house prices.  A housing market vitality value can be interpreted as a forecasted growth rate. Hence, a reading of 105.8 can be interpreted as a forecasted 5.8% annualized increase in house prices.

Alaska Metro Housing Markets

Alaska is comprised of two metro housing markets that account for nearly 67% of the state’s population. The markets are unique in their demographics and local economies and exhibit trends that are distinct from the national or state narrative. Each metro market presents its own unique opportunity.

METRO AREA FORECAST US METRO RANK (/402)
Anchorage, AK Underperform 361
Fairbanks, AK Underperform 389

Industry Specialization

Alaska’s state economy is specialized in Mining, Construction, and Pro Bus svcs. Manufacturing, Fncl activities, and Edu Health svcs industry sectors are less important to the state economy compared to the national economy.

Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the state economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Demographics

Compared to the U.S., there is a lower incidence of poverty amongst Last Frontier residents and they have greater purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a larger proportion of the population is college educated. Alaska’s population is comparatively more diverse than the overall U.S. population.

A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the state versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.