Market Report

Johnson City, TN

Short-term forecast

Outperform

House price changes in the Johnson City, TN metro market are forecasted to outperform the national market in the short term. Based on the housing market vitality metric, the market ranks 19 among 402 US metro housing markets. Currently, the metro market is outperforming the national market and performance is forecasted to improve slightly.

MARKET RANK
Feb 2020 Feb 2019
19 / 402 4 / 402
SITUATION
Feb 2020 Feb 2019
Outperforming Outperforming
OUTLOOK
Feb 2020 Feb 2019
Positive Positive

Forecasted Performance

The local housing market vitality is forecasted to improve slightly and performance will be in the top decile of all metro markets. Improvements in housing availability and new construction conditions lift the forecasted performance and changes in national economy conditions drag down the forecast.

Trailing 12-month Performance

Over the last twelve months, local housing market vitality moderated and performance is currently in the top quartile of all metro markets. Improvements in local economy and national economy conditions lifted trailing 12-month performance and changes in new construction conditions dragged down performance.

Industry Specialization

The local economy is specialized in: Edu Health svcs, Manufacturing, and Construction. Mining, Information, and Fncl activities industry sectors are less important to the local economy. Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the local economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Industry Composition

Accounting for 57% of the local business economy, the top three industry sectors are: Trade Trans Util, Manufacturing, and Edu Health svcs. These industry sectors create the bulk of the jobs and earnings that power the local economy. Longer-term trends that impact these sectors will have an enduring effect on the local economy.

Market Demographics

Compared to the US, Johnson City, TN metro market has a higher incidence of poverty and the local population has less purchasing power. There are fewer high school graduates and a smaller proportion of the population is college educated. Lastly, the local population is less diverse than the overall US population. A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the local market versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.