Market Report

Durham-Chapel Hill, NC

Short-term forecast

Outperform

House price changes in the Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro market are forecasted to outperform the national market in the short term. Based on the housing market vitality metric, the market ranks 79 among 402 US metro housing markets. Currently, the metro market is outperforming the national market and performance is forecasted to moderate.

MARKET RANK
Feb 2020 Feb 2019
79 / 402 83 / 402
SITUATION
Feb 2020 Feb 2019
Outperforming Outperforming
OUTLOOK
Feb 2020 Feb 2019
Negative Positive

Forecasted Performance

The local housing market vitality is forecasted to moderate and performance will be in the middle fifty of all metro markets. Improvements in new construction and job market conditions lift the forecasted performance and changes in national economy and local economy conditions moderate the forecast.

Trailing 12-month Performance

Over the last twelve months, local housing market vitality improved slightly and performance is currently in the middle fifty of all metro markets. Improvements in local economy and housing availability conditions lifted trailing 12-month performance and changes in job market and national economy conditions moderated performance.

Industry Specialization

The local economy is specialized in: Pro Bus svcs, Information, and Leisure Hosp. Mining, Trade Trans Util, and Fncl activities industry sectors are less important to the local economy. Industry specialization helps explain the differing impact of industry trends on local economies in contrast to industry composition which describes the structure of the economy. A Specialization Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the sector having a greater share of the local economy than it does of the national economy. Sectors with a Specialization Index greater than 120 characterize the local economy.

Industry Composition

Accounting for 57% of the local business economy, the top three industry sectors are: Trade Trans Util, Pro Bus svcs, and Manufacturing. These industry sectors create the bulk of the jobs and earnings that power the local economy. Longer-term trends that impact these sectors will have an enduring effect on the local economy.

Market Demographics

Compared to the US, Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro market has a higher incidence of poverty and the local population has more purchasing power. There are more high school graduates and a larger proportion of the population is college educated. Lastly, the local population is more diverse than the overall US population. A Demographics Index value greater than 100 corresponds to the factor being more intense in the local market versus the national average. Characteristics of the local population is a longer-term factor that influences the housing market.