Category: Report

HousingIQ: Q1 2020 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Entering the spring home-buying season, the housing market had firmly recovered from Spring 2019 lows

The March data does not show the full impact of “stay-at-home” or similar orders that started to affect most Americans by late March. The April data will no doubt reflect that nearly 90% of Americans were effectively told to not venture outside. What remains to be seen is how the forced unemployment, financial relief to consumers and businesses, and the pandemic’s longer-term impact on the shape of the economy, interplay to affect the housing market. 

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HousingIQ: February 2020 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Going into the coronavirus crisis, the housing market was strengthening to Spring 2018 highs with 95% of metro markets forecasted to improve and 28 states forecasted to outperform the national market.

The February data does not reflect the COVID-19 impact.  The March data will no doubt show a huge impact as local economies across the country suffer job losses and worse.  One can get a sense of that forthcoming impact from the latest edition of the HousingIQ/Kentucky REALTORS® Confidence Index which dropped 32.5 points from its February 2020 reading.

The data for February show that it was going to be the best of times. The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) closed February 2020 at 106.9 which corresponds to economic conditions supporting 6.9% annual house price gains. The 3.1 point year-over-year increase sustained the January momentum and erased all 2019 losses in market strength. At the state level, twenty-eight state housing markets ended stronger than the overall US housing market. At the metro level, February 2020 ended with house prices in 95% of all metro markets forecasted to improve.

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HousingIQ: Q3 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Housing market vitality softening.
Thirty-five metro markets forecasted to deteriorate.
Twelve states forecasted to outperform national market.

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) closed Q3 2019 at 105.9 suggesting economic conditions support 5.9% annual house price gains. The 0.15 point year-over-year decrease wiped out all improvements since last spring. At the state level, twelve state housing markets are stronger than the overall US housing market. At the metro level, Q3 2019 ended with house price changes in 114 metro markets forecasted to outperform the national market. On a cautionary note, in thirty-five metro markets house prices are forecasted to decline.

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HousingIQ: August 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Housing market vitality softening.
Sharp increase in number of markets with forecasted price declines.
Over a quarter of markets forecasted to outperform.

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) decreased by 0.4 point to end August 2019 at 105.6. The 0.3 point three-month decrease and 0.3 point year-over-year decrease indicate a sustained softening in house price trends. Market strength continues to be widespread with local economic conditions exerting a positive impact in 90% of the 402 metro housing markets tracked by HousingIQ. August 2019 ended with house price changes in over 100 metro markets forecasted to outperform the national market. On a cautionary note, the number of markets with forecasted price decreases increased sharply to over 10%.

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HousingIQ: July 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Housing market vitality stable.
Economic conditions support recent trends.
Prices forecasted to deteriorate in 4% of markets.

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) decreased by 0.25 point to end July 2019 at 105.8. The negligible 0.09 point three-month decrease and 0.10 point year-over-year decrease indicate house price trends will sustain in the short term. Market strength continues to be widespread with local economic conditions exerting a positive impact on 386 out of the 402 metro housing markets (96%) tracked by HousingIQ. July 2019 ended with house price changes in 133 metro markets (33%) forecasted to outperform the national market.

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HousingIQ: Q2 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Housing market vitality at eight-year high.
Economic conditions support over 6% increase in house prices.
Steady uptick in number of markets with decreasing prices.

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) closed Q2 2019 at an eight-year high reading of 106.6. The 0.32 point year-over-year increase and 0.39 point quarterly increase indicate prevailing house price trends will continue in the short term. Market strength was widespread with local economic conditions exerting a positive impact on 373 out of the 402 metro housing markets (93%) tracked by HousingIQ. Q2 2019 ended with house price changes in 131 metro markets (33%) forecasted to outperform the national market.

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HousingIQ: May 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Recent house price trends to continue. Economic conditions support 6% increase in house prices.

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) closed May 2019 at 106.2. The insignificant 0.03 point year-over-year decrease and 0.08 point increase in the three-month moving average indicate prevailing house price trends will continue in the short term. Market strength was widespread with local economic conditions exerting a positive impact on 386 out of the 402 metro housing markets (96%) tracked by HousingIQ. May 2019 ended with house price changes in 168 metro markets (42%) forecasted to outperform the national market.

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HousingIQ: April 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) closed April 2019 at 106.2. The insignificant 0.07 point year-over-year increase and 0.1 point increase in the three-month moving average suggest current economic conditions will continue to support prevailing house price trends. Market strength was widespread with local economic conditions having a positive impact on 387 out of the 402 metro markets (96%) tracked by HousingIQ. April 2019 ended with 167 metro markets (42%) forecasted to outperform the national market.

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HousingIQ: Q1 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator averaged 106.3 during the quarter – a negligible 0.1% drop from a year ago.   Values greater than 100 correspond to underlying economic factors exerting a positive impact on future house prices.  Market strength was widespread with 391 out of the 402 metro markets (97.3%) tracked by HousingIQ being positively impacted by economic factors.  Q1 2019 ends with 164 metro markets (40.8%) forecasted to outperform the national market.

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