The data behind the housing market optimism and weakness

In mid-June, Nobel laureate Robert Shiller summarized the upbeat findings of a housing survey with “At an average rate of more than 6%, household expectations for home prices over the next 12 months are remarkably high.”  He described the expectations as reflecting a “healthy optimism”.

So what’s behind the optimism?  Can we measure it?  Can we explore it? 

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HousingIQ: May 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Recent house price trends to continue. Economic conditions support 6% increase in house prices.

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) closed May 2019 at 106.2. The insignificant 0.03 point year-over-year decrease and 0.08 point increase in the three-month moving average indicate prevailing house price trends will continue in the short term. Market strength was widespread with local economic conditions exerting a positive impact on 386 out of the 402 metro housing markets (96%) tracked by HousingIQ. May 2019 ended with house price changes in 168 metro markets (42%) forecasted to outperform the national market.

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Knowledge-economy and house prices: positively related

Plentiful, better paying jobs drive local housing markets.  This link between economic performance and metro housing markets underlies the Housing Market Vitality Indicators (HMVI).  With over 100 months of historic data covering all metro areas, the HMVI are well-studied, tested, and validated.   What has been missing thus far is an independent assessment of metropolitan area economic performance.  

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HousingIQ: April 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) closed April 2019 at 106.2. The insignificant 0.07 point year-over-year increase and 0.1 point increase in the three-month moving average suggest current economic conditions will continue to support prevailing house price trends. Market strength was widespread with local economic conditions having a positive impact on 387 out of the 402 metro markets (96%) tracked by HousingIQ. April 2019 ended with 167 metro markets (42%) forecasted to outperform the national market.

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HousingIQ: Q1 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator averaged 106.3 during the quarter – a negligible 0.1% drop from a year ago.   Values greater than 100 correspond to underlying economic factors exerting a positive impact on future house prices.  Market strength was widespread with 391 out of the 402 metro markets (97.3%) tracked by HousingIQ being positively impacted by economic factors.  Q1 2019 ends with 164 metro markets (40.8%) forecasted to outperform the national market.

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When crowdfunding residential real estate, don’t ignore location.

Real estate has long been an attractive investment vehicle that has been out of reach for most individual investors.  Crowdfunding real estate sites offer individual investors an opportunity to gain exposure to this asset class.  These sites allow individuals to participate in private deals with small amounts of cash.  By making multiple, smaller dollar investments across platforms, individuals can gain additional benefits of diversification — reduced risk and potentially higher returns.

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HousingIQ: Fact-based, actionable insights about the housing market

What we pay for a house is determined by a myriad of interconnected factors–how much we make; how we feel about the future; the state of the economy; the availability of properties for sale, …. Aggregate indicators reflecting these factors are routinely published, duly reported, and oftentimes present contradictory signals. Making sense of them is hard. All we want to know is: How will this impact house prices?  And pretty please, How will this impact house prices in my backyard?

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