Ten Housing Markets to Watch Post Coronavirus Crisis

Whether the post-coronavirus crisis recovery is V-shaped, W-shaped, looks more like a U or an I or an L, is for the pundits to debate.  What is undeniable is that we will prevail.  The pandemic will end.  And the economy will restart.  This recovery, much as is the case with the current job losses, will be uneven across industry sectors and geographies

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HousingIQ: February 2020 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Going into the coronavirus crisis, the housing market was strengthening to Spring 2018 highs with 95% of metro markets forecasted to improve and 28 states forecasted to outperform the national market.

The February data does not reflect the COVID-19 impact.  The March data will no doubt show a huge impact as local economies across the country suffer job losses and worse.  One can get a sense of that forthcoming impact from the latest edition of the HousingIQ/Kentucky REALTORS® Confidence Index which dropped 32.5 points from its February 2020 reading.

The data for February show that it was going to be the best of times. The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) closed February 2020 at 106.9 which corresponds to economic conditions supporting 6.9% annual house price gains. The 3.1 point year-over-year increase sustained the January momentum and erased all 2019 losses in market strength. At the state level, twenty-eight state housing markets ended stronger than the overall US housing market. At the metro level, February 2020 ended with house prices in 95% of all metro markets forecasted to improve.

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HousingIQ Survey of Kentucky REALTORS® – March 2020

Home sellers take wait-and-see approach as buyers discouraged by stock market correction

Nearly two out of three REALTORS® — 65% — said their buyers were significantly discouraged by the recent stock market correction, according to the March 2020 edition of the HousingIQ Survey of Kentucky REALTORS®. 84% of the over 700 REALTORS® from across Kentucky reported that their sellers had not removed their homes from the market due to coronavirus fears.

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Housing Millennials

Heartland Forward’s new research, “Millennials Find New Hope In The Heartland“, finds the Heartland to be an increasingly attractive destination for millennials to live and work in. Attracting millennials is key to the future economic growth of any area. A healthy housing market contributes to the appeal of an area, benefits from economic growth, and fosters economic vitality.

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HousingIQ: Q3 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Housing market vitality softening.
Thirty-five metro markets forecasted to deteriorate.
Twelve states forecasted to outperform national market.

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) closed Q3 2019 at 105.9 suggesting economic conditions support 5.9% annual house price gains. The 0.15 point year-over-year decrease wiped out all improvements since last spring. At the state level, twelve state housing markets are stronger than the overall US housing market. At the metro level, Q3 2019 ended with house price changes in 114 metro markets forecasted to outperform the national market. On a cautionary note, in thirty-five metro markets house prices are forecasted to decline.

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California Housing Market Vitality – August 2019

Eight metro housing markets forecasted to outperform national market
Fourteen markets forecasted to underperform national market

The recently released California Association of Realtors (CAR) 2020 Housing Market Forecast projects a 4.1% increase in California median home prices in 2019 and a 2.5% increase in 2020.  Such aggregate data from economists who have their ears closest to the ground is extremely valuable.  HousingIQ adds actionable details to the headline.

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HousingIQ: August 2019 Housing Market Vitality Highlights

Housing market vitality softening.
Sharp increase in number of markets with forecasted price declines.
Over a quarter of markets forecasted to outperform.

The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) decreased by 0.4 point to end August 2019 at 105.6. The 0.3 point three-month decrease and 0.3 point year-over-year decrease indicate a sustained softening in house price trends. Market strength continues to be widespread with local economic conditions exerting a positive impact in 90% of the 402 metro housing markets tracked by HousingIQ. August 2019 ended with house price changes in over 100 metro markets forecasted to outperform the national market. On a cautionary note, the number of markets with forecasted price decreases increased sharply to over 10%.

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10 housing markets for single family rental investors

The local population is better educated. They work in the knowledge economy. They make a good living. And they need a place to call home. Hiccups, cooling-offs, moderations, … notwithstanding, houses have become increasingly unaffordable in these markets. Which presents single family rental (SFR) investors an opportunity for income and long-term appreciation.

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