Eight metro housing markets forecasted to outperform national market
Fourteen markets forecasted to underperform national market
The recently released California Association of Realtors (CAR) 2020 Housing Market Forecast projects a 4.1% increase in California median home prices in 2019 and a 2.5% increase in 2020. Such aggregate data from economists who have their ears closest to the ground is extremely valuable. HousingIQ adds actionable details to the headline.Read More
Housing market vitality softening.
Sharp increase in number of markets with forecasted price declines.
Over a quarter of markets forecasted to outperform.
The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) decreased by 0.4 point to end August 2019 at 105.6. The 0.3 point three-month decrease and 0.3 point year-over-year decrease indicate a sustained softening in house price trends. Market strength continues to be widespread with local economic conditions exerting a positive impact in 90% of the 402 metro housing markets tracked by HousingIQ. August 2019 ended with house price changes in over 100 metro markets forecasted to outperform the national market. On a cautionary note, the number of markets with forecasted price decreases increased sharply to over 10%.Read More
The local population is better educated. They work in the knowledge economy. They make a good living. And they need a place to call home. Hiccups, cooling-offs, moderations, … notwithstanding, houses have become increasingly unaffordable in these markets. Which presents single family rental (SFR) investors an opportunity for income and long-term appreciation.Read More
Some are plain boring. Some in the news for the wrong reasons. Some are always overshadowed by the hipper city next door. Some were booming. But watch out. These 15 metro markets are poised to have their moment.Read More
Housing market vitality stable.
Economic conditions support recent trends.
Prices forecasted to deteriorate in 4% of markets.
The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) decreased by 0.25 point to end July 2019 at 105.8. The negligible 0.09 point three-month decrease and 0.10 point year-over-year decrease indicate house price trends will sustain in the short term. Market strength continues to be widespread with local economic conditions exerting a positive impact on 386 out of the 402 metro housing markets (96%) tracked by HousingIQ. July 2019 ended with house price changes in 133 metro markets (33%) forecasted to outperform the national market.Read More
Pop quiz. Two different parts of the country. Two houses. Two mortgages. Same credit score. Identical LTV. Which loan has a higher likelihood of defaulting? The answer, unsurprisingly, is: ‘It depends’. It depends on the local economic conditions. It depends on how house prices move in those areas. The area where house prices decline more will have a higher likelihood of the loan defaulting. The loan in the area with more jobs, better wages, and higher growth prospects is less likely to default.Read More
Housing market vitality at eight-year high.
Economic conditions support over 6% increase in house prices.
Steady uptick in number of markets with decreasing prices.
The US Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI-US) closed Q2 2019 at an eight-year high reading of 106.6. The 0.32 point year-over-year increase and 0.39 point quarterly increase indicate prevailing house price trends will continue in the short term. Market strength was widespread with local economic conditions exerting a positive impact on 373 out of the 402 metro housing markets (93%) tracked by HousingIQ. Q2 2019 ended with house price changes in 131 metro markets (33%) forecasted to outperform the national market.Read More
Zestimate just got a makeover – it’s smarter and sees better. Incorporating ideas from the Zillow Prize, it’s now more accurate and “half of all Zestimates fall within 2% of the home’s eventual sale price.” That accuracy comes with a caveat. It is for Zestimates of for-sale properties. For homes that are not listed for sale, the error is 7.7%. Nevertheless, for home buyers, Zestimates give a good, usable idea of current house values.
But what about future house values? The Zestimate forecast predicts the change in the Zestimate over the next 12 months based on past Zestimate values and the Zillow Home Value Forecast. The Zillow Home Value Forecast forecasts the change in the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) over the next 12 months. And all this boils down to: improved forecasts of the Zillow Home Value Index power better (Z)estimates of future house values.Read More
In mid-June, Nobel laureate Robert Shiller summarized the upbeat findings of a housing survey with “At an average rate of more than 6%, household expectations for home prices over the next 12 months are remarkably high.” He described the expectations as reflecting a “healthy optimism”.
So what’s behind the optimism? Can we measure it? Can we explore it?Read More