Introducing Housing Market Vitality

It started with a simple question: Can local economic conditions predict housing market performance?  Intuitively, the answer has to be ‘Yes’. After all, beyond national trends, beyond regional trends, we live where we work. And what we pay for that slice of the ‘American Dream’ is to a large extent determined by how we feel. About now; about the future; about our jobs; about the local economy. the Housing Market Vitality Indicator (HMVI) rates over 400 US metropolitan areas and divisions on factors that impact housing market performance.  Factors include local economic conditions as reflected in labor market metrics, business performance indicators, and future economic outlook; housing supply and new construction; and national economic and financial indicators. Using an ensemble of econometric and machine learning techniques, HMVI provides a monthly composite rank for each area along with metrics summarizing the local market’s Current situation, short-term Outlook,and Forecast.  Using historic data spanning over seven years, HMVI has been found to Granger-cause house price changes and improve the predictive accuracy of house price change forecasts by 40%